The dawn of a new New York City day provides clear vision and a better view of the NBA's labor dispute, absent the strong language, frustration, disappointment and surreal theater of news conferences.
It is a serious situation for players, owners, fans, corporate partners and those who make a living from NBA games.
The week of optimism, with three consecutive days of meetings, turned south Thursday evening when not even touted federal mediator George Cohen could prevent the negotiations from breaking down.
The sobering possibility of a lost season is real as talks start and fall apart with regularity and little progress is made, especially on the major issues.
"Certainly, we don't want to lose a season. I don't think the NHL did. It ended up happening. There are certain things we feel we must have," said San Antonio Spurs owner Peter Holt, the NBA's labor relations committee chairman.
Holt said it as Texas matter of fact.
Progress early Thursday had some clubs beginning to call assistant coaches, talking to them about returning and getting ready for the season.
Even National Basketball Players Association outside counsel Jeffrey Kessler thought progress was on the horizon. But he believes something changed when owners got into town for the Board of Governors meeting.
"Some group in that Board of Governors made a decision that they are going to blow us off and blow off the fans, for whatever reasons," Kessler said.
Breakdown it was.
Players and owners remain deeply divided on the split of basketball-related income (BRI) and the system in which that money is distributed to players.
Owners are unwilling right now to go beyond a 50-50 split of BRI, and players offered a split ranging from 50-50 to 53-47 depending on league revenue growth.
Neither side likes the other's offer, at all. There's some flexibility in both proposals, with owners willing to give players as much as 51% in strong financial seasons and as little as 49% in down years. The players suggested a split that went as high as 53% for players in good years and 50% in years that don't reach financial benchmarks.
A few percentage points apart doesn't seem like much, but it is about $80-$120 million difference in one season and about $1 billion in 10 years.
They also differ on such things as the salary cap, luxury tax, annual raises, length of player contracts, certain exceptions to the cap and the length of the collective bargaining agreement, with owners seeking a 10-year deal.
They are also divided on which side broke off talks. Each accused the other of issuing ultimatums to keep negotiations going.
Union leaders said they wanted to continue negotiating so badly that they had ordered Virgil's BBQ for both sides.
They ate alone.
Holt and NBA Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver remained calm while driving home the point league executives have made over and over: owners want a system which eliminates the league's financial losses (about $650 million the past two seasons), allows clubs to profit and creates more competitive balance.
The league is also tired of a $50 million-$70 million payroll discrepancy between the highest and lowest spending clubs that has produced champions from just nine franchises since 1980.
"We think that a team that spends $100 million on its payroll versus a team that spends $50 million is at a huge competitive advantage," Silver said. "We are looking for a system that spreads the talent out throughout the league. We think we will have a healthier league. We think ultimately that we will be stronger if fans in every community have an opportunity to have hope in their team."
It is a theme that Commissioner David Stern put a fine point on last spring at the start of the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat, after a season in which the league enjoyed 4.8% revenue growth, record TV viewership, increased attendance in a down economy and 20% increase in merchandise sales.
"We had a great year in terms of the appreciation of the fans for our game," Stern said then. "It just wasn't a profitable one for the owners. It wasn't one that many of the smaller market teams particularly enjoyed."
Holt said his Spurs have lost money the past two seasons and would have lost money in previous seasons had it not been for deep playoff runs, including championships in 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007.
"It helped cover our losses, but … if we had not had that situation, we would have been losing money before, even before these last two years in this last CBA," Holt said.
Union president Derek Fisher of the Los Angeles Lakers union executive director Billy Hunter came out aggressively after Thursday's session, perhaps retaliating for Stern's PR blitz last week that characterized players as the bad guys.
Fisher said news reporters were "lied to," and Hunter recounted meandering stories of Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert's trusting gut and Portland Trail Blazers owner Paul Allen's non-verbal strong-arm tactics.
But Hunter made his point: Certain owners — he named the Lakers' Jerry Buss, the Heat's Micky Arison and the Mavericks' Mark Cuban — are more willing to meet the players on certain issues than others. Of the latter group, he named Gilbert, Allen, Holt and the Washington Wizards' Ted Leonsis, who also owns the NHL's Washington Capitals and knows precisely the impact of a lost season after what that league recently endured.
The union says it has acknowledged the NBA's financial losses, offering a minimum of $160 million in salary reductions annually and reductions in length of contract. The union also is willing to explore changes to the cap exceptions, player contract lengths, annual raises and different luxury tax systems. The union argues high club payrolls have little correlation to success.
"We've made concession after concession and concession, and it's just not enough," Hunter said.
They can't make any headway on those issues right now, leaving disgruntlement everywhere. They better hope fan apathy doesn't follow.
What next? The prospect of more canceled games looms along with more devastating financial setbacks for both. A lost month, if some games are not saved when the lockout ends, will cost players and owners roughly $650 million in BRI.
No meetings are scheduled but don't be surprised if they meet again next week. On Oct. 4, Hunter said he didn't know when they would meet again. "It might be a month, might be two months. Your guess is as good as mine," he said.
They met Oct. 9. One day later, Stern canceled the first two weeks of the regular season. Cohen announced his involvement Oct. 12.
This is collective bargaining. One negotiating session, BRI is the problem. The next session, the system issues are the problem. Around and around it goes.
But they will meet again, with no promise of progress. Even in the face of dour developments, both sides remain committed to negotiations, even if they remain far from a deal.
"I remain an optimist. I think you have to, to participate in this process," Silver said.
Kessler said, "We're ready to negotiate — today, tomorrow, tonight, any time."
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